Self-Driving Gullibility — October 22, 2018

There's something about charismatic leaders that we always fall for; an abundance of Tesla, Facebook, Netflix and Uber content this week; the economic benefits of A.I.; Americans don't trust bots (can you blame them?); A.I. and medicine; automakers are trying to become software companies; mobile ad spending passes TV ad spending; consumers want brands to take a stand; why you're seeing brands you don't recognize; oh, what a tangled web Facebook weaves; Netflix is responsible for 15% of global Internet traffic; Spotify may upend soundtrack albums; Uber and Lyft are racing toward IPOs; marketers are having trouble with data-driven personalization; the word of the week is "humbition"; plus the podcast pick of the week and MUCH more in the Self-Driving Gullibility edition of The Full Monty for the week of October 22, 2018.

The Full Monty makes you smarter faster, by curating the essential business intelligence every week. Links are below with commentary in italics. Please sign up for our email updates to make sure you don't miss a thing. And check out The Full Monty on Flipboard.

Announcements

If you aren't yet subscribed to updates on my blog, please check that out. I create two posts a week that capture an issue of today and tie it to a quote from the classics of philosophy, history, or literature.

Last week, we continued to explore reputation as it relates to actions, and the stories we tell ourselves:

Top Story

Why is it that we're willingly fooled by some people? Usually it's some charismatic leader, or someone who provides something that fills us with great hope — yes, that sounds rather cult-like, doesn't it?

Consider the continual ruse we've fallen for at Facebook. I wrote about Facebook's trust problem as far back as 2014. And now we've discovered that Facebook can use data about whom users call and which apps they use on the company's new in-home, voice-activated speaker Portal for targeted ads on Facebook-owned properties. During the product launch, executives said data collected on Portal would not be used to target users for advertisements.

And Elon Musk, that great showman / Twitterer-in-chief, has consumers and investors alike eating out of his hands with promises that are just around the corner or that never materialize. Such as fully autonomous driving on the Tesla Model 3, which we now find will not be happening (not to mention that Tesla's are Level 2 autonomous, not Level 5, as indicated).

We think we're intelligent, but plenty of us have been taken in by confidence artists of one sort or another "It couldn't happen to me," you say. Well, it most likely does in one way or another. It's just part of human nature. William James wrote: "No fact in human nature is more characteristic than its willingness to live on a chance."

More on this topic on The Full Monty podcast this week.

About this week's image: Lear was duped by Edgar, who was disguised as Tom O'Bedlam in Act 3 Scene 4 of King Lear. Incidentally, Bedlam was England's notorious insane asylum.

Speaking Engagements

Always looking for recommendations for speaking engagements. I connect our digital selves with classical influences, pointing out the universal human truths that can unlock the secret of retaining and growing customer relationships. Can I speak to your organization or at your event? Feel free to contact me to discuss it.

If you're looking to save some of your budget this year and don't feel like sending multiple members of your team to a conference (high prices, time away from the office, questionable content), I've got an option for you: bring me in for a roundtable experience with your team for an hour or two.

Artificial Intelligence / Autonomous

The latest in AI, machine learning, bots, and blockchain, mobility, and autonomous everything.

Aʀᴛɪꜰɪᴄɪᴀʟ Iɴᴛᴇʟʟɪɢᴇɴᴄᴇ / Mᴀᴄʜɪɴᴇ Lᴇᴀʀɴɪɴɢ

Artificial intelligence promises considerable economic benefits, even as it disrupts the world of work. These three priorities will help achieve good outcomes. (McKinsey)
There is a future danger from super A.I. But no one can pinpoint it yet. (Medium)
Scientists of A.I. at Google's Google Brain and DeepMind units acknowledge machine learning is falling short of human cognition and propose that using models of networks might be a way to find relations between things that allow computers to generalize more broadly about the world. (ZDNet)
The bot industry has a communications opportunity in its hands, as most Americans think bots are evil. (Pew Research Center) I'll program a daily reminder to insist that they're not.

Related: a new California law says bots must identify themselves as non-human. (Quartz) Until they go haywire and take over the world ("I'm sorry Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that.").

Artificial intelligence and medicine popped in a few stories this week:

An A.I. program trained to search Facebook for signs of depression was able to identify the condition faster than health services. (The Independent) Now if A.I. could only shorten the time I have to wait for my doctor to show up.
A startup comprised of three doctors is using a smartphone app to collect measures of cognition and emotional health from how they use their phone to determine signs of depression. (MIT Technology Review)
Here are three A.I. and tech tools that are designed to improve mental health. (Popular Science)
Your next doctor visit may be with A.I. There are a host of chatbots giving frontline medical advice to patients: Babylon, Ada, Your.MD, and Dr. A.I. (MIT Technology Review) The bot will see you now.

Aᴜᴛᴏɴᴏᴍᴏᴜs / Mᴏʙɪʟɪᴛʏ

Auto makers are racing to transform themselves into software companies. At stake: who will control the future of transportation? They're fighting for their lives to fend off rivals like Uber and Waymo. (WSJ) The question is: will the software companies ever want to get into something as low margin and high risk as auto manufacturing?
Tesla quietly dropped the "full self-driving" option from the Model 3. (Ars Technica) There is more to this than just the scammy nature of what Tesla sold customers. With this announcement, Musk fed a real-world safety problem that goes beyond just Tesla's cars. And now the world is confused about what autonomous cars really are. (Jalopnik)
A long and fascinating read about the lawsuit between Uber and Waymo over their autonomous IP, and the soap opera that led up to it. (The New Yorker)
“If it is your job to advance technology, safety cannot be your number one concern,” according to Uber and Google’s fired engineer Anthony Levandowksi. (Jalopnik) He sounds nice.

Communications / Marketing / Business Strategy

Industry developments and trends, including advertising & marketing, journalism, customer experience, content, and influencer relations.

Sᴛʀᴀᴛᴇɢʏ / Mᴀʀᴋᴇᴛɪɴɢ / Cᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ

Digital strategy and transformation requires a special set of skills and battles to succeed. Namely, you need to fight ignorance, fear, guesswork, and diffusion. (McKinsey)
Why companies struggle with digital transformation. Technology is just the beginning. (MIT Sloan) Or in some cases, end Start with culture.
Mobile ad spending is already set to surpass TV by $6 billion this year. By 2020, the channel will represent 43 percent of total media ad spending in the US—a greater percentage than all traditional media combined. (eMarketer) "Don't change that dial" has become "Don't put that phone down."
The ad industry has always prided itself on creativity and innovation, but today that tradition is being eclipsed by frustrating user experiences and painful controversies in digital that are eroding trust. (Axios)
Why users are fed up with digital ads, in five charts. The number one complaint is they're too aggressive and they're everywhere. (eMarketer) That's not annoying at all.
Content strategy versus content marketing: what's the difference? (Forbes)

Jᴏᴜʀɴᴀʟɪsᴍ / Cᴏᴍᴍᴜɴɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴs / Rᴇᴘᴜᴛᴀᴛɪᴏɴ

Why crisis response should operate like a newsroom. (Dataminr)
If you're putting together an influencer program, here are nine best practices for influencer marketing agreements. (Convince and Convert)
Consumers want brands to stand for something; 61 percent say it's important for companies to express their views. Companies can maintain loyalty from consumers who might disagree with their position, as long as they explain why they’re doing what they’re doing and how it relates to the company's values. (Agility PR)
A beautiful job by Tim Horton's, who surprised Kenya's only hockey team with the game of their lives and a huge surprise. (AdWeek)

Retail Apocalypse

Humans are a transactional species, and the practice — if not the very notion of what retail is — is undergoing a historical metamorphosis.

Users are spending more time and money with new brands that are using data to form direct relationships with them online, and traditional retailers are struggling to keep up. (Axios) The direct-to-consumer market is one I've been following extensively, which makes up part of my keynote on personalization.

How consumers really feel about subscription services. (eMarketer Retail)

There's been lots of post-bankruptcy speculation on Sears. Was it department stores or online competition that doomed Sears? Ultimately, it was a self-inflicted wound: lack of differentiation. (eMarketer Retail)

In 2008, Sears CEO Eddie Lampert decided to restructure the company according to the principles of Ayn Rand. What happened was predictable: business units, in their effort to demonstrate progress, undercut their colleagues in other units to ensure their own success. (PBS) Incidentally, this was the exact opposite of what we undertook at Ford at the same time.
Five takeaways to heed from Sears' bankruptcy tale, from customer-centricity to technology and more. (The Retail Doctor)

Following the high-profile collapse of Sears, J.C. Penney needs to make its case this holiday season. (Bloomberg)
Walmart is hanging tough against Amazon. Grocery sales growth is at a nine-year high. Walmart's online sales are expected to grow 40 percent this year, and the company said Tuesday that digital growth will expand by 35 percent in 2019. (CNN Business)
Amazon has captured 30 percent of online grocery spending. (Retail Dive)

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Platforms

News to know about relevant social, virtual, and augmented reality platforms that may affect your business.

Fᴀᴄᴇʙᴏᴏᴋ / Iɴsᴛᴀɢʀᴀᴍ / WʜᴀᴛsAᴘᴘ

Advertisers allege in a lawsuit that Facebook didn't disclose a key video metric error for over a year and that scale of miscalculation was far worse than understood. (WSJ) But, you know, "trust us," Facebook says.

Recall that Facebook's line was "five years to all video." (Nieman Labs) Seems like a massive con job.

It turns out that Facebook can (and most likely will) use data about whom users call and which apps they use on the company's new in-home, voice-activated speaker Portal for targeted ads on Facebook-owned properties. The new statement backtracks on claims during the product's launch last week when executives said data collected on Portal would not be used to target users for advertisements. (Recode) Remember a couple of weeks ago? "Rebuilding trust is the company's total focus." Fool me once...shame on...shame on you. You fooled me—can't get fooled again.
Four U.S. officials have called for a boardroom shakeup of Facebook, including the removal of Mark Zuckerberg as CEO. (The Telegraph) Won't happen, due to his share structure.
You can now make travel reservations by taking an Instagram screenshot, called Look and Book by easyJet in the UK. (Quartzy)

Tᴡɪᴛᴛᴇʀ

CEOs Zuckerberg and Dorsey could fix the mess that Facebook and Twitter have gotten us into. But they've been trained not to care. (Wired) Does Silicon Valley need more empathy? Or perhaps less myopia.
Jack Dorsey says that Twitter does contribute to filter bubbles and the company is working on ways to fix it. (CNBC)
Brands that are making the most of Twitter, from Netflix to Merriam-Webster. (Search Engine Journal)

Oᴛʜᴇʀ

Google quietly added a channel shortcut to YouTube video embeds that, when hovered over, displays the full channel name, a subscribe button, and more. (9to5Google)
DTC brands are sidestepping Facebook and Instagram and going directly to Snapchat. (Digiday)
Pinterest plans to roll out three features that will lead to more product purchases: current pricing and stock information on all pins; a "Products like this" feature for fashion and home decor pins; and a shopping shortcut to connect users to products similar to those in a given pin. (TechCrunch)

Media

The latest in the world of streaming video, audio, and the advertising, pricing and bundling models related to them.

Vɪᴅᴇᴏ

There's a lot of competition in the streaming media space right now, and the bundles we're required to assemble may outstrip what we're currently paying for cable. (Hollywood Reporter)
Netflix had another great quarter: streaming revenue of $3.91 billion, up 36 percent year over year, and global membership surpassing 130 million paid and 137 million total. (CNBC)
Netflix is now responsible for 15 percent of all internet traffic globally, according to a report. YouTube takes up 11.4 percent. (Sandvine)
How big has Netflix gotten? So big that it's cancelling shows. (Wired)
The power of Netflix goes beyond the screen. Its hit original shows like Stranger Things and films like To All The Boys I’ve Loved Before don’t just drive subscriber growth — they also drive culture, as witnessed through Instagram followers. (Recode)

Aᴜᴅɪᴏ

With the launch of a 24-hour comedy channel on SiriusXM, Netflix is approaching the experiment as a marketing play rather than a new revenue stream. (The Drum) Given the amount of comedy material on Netflix, it makes sense and is an easy transfer of content.
E.W. Scripps said it will buy audio advertising and measurement company Triton for $150 million. Scripps had previously purchased on-demand audio service Stitcher and podcasting ad net Midroll, but Triton will be its first subscription software business and first advertising measurement offering. (AdExchanger)
Spotify is tinkering with the soundtrack album. It is releasing music to the movie Mid90s as a playlist rather than as an album. (WSJ) Given Spotify's popularity, this might change how we consume soundtracks (although not for those of us who are original score fans).
Program of the Week: Our pick this week is Myths and Legends, which brings you folklore that has shaped our world.

And don't forget about The Full Monty podcast, our own 5-minute weekly business commentary.

Privacy / Security / Regulatory

Business disruptions in the legal, regulatory, and computer security fields, from hacking to the on-demand economy and more.

Pʀɪᴠᴀᴄʏ / Sᴇᴄᴜʀɪᴛʏ / Hᴀᴄᴋɪɴɢ

Consent Management Platforms (CMPs) help marketers keep track of when users do and do not give consent to have their data tracked amid the implementation of GDPR. (eMarketer)
The September Facebook hack affected about three million people in Europe. This will be the first major test of GDPR, under which Facebook could be fined up to 4 percent of its annual revenue. (CNBC) That's $1.6 billion, for those of you following at home, or a lot of Euros.

Rᴇɢᴜʟᴀᴛᴏʀʏ / Oɴ-Dᴇᴍᴀɴᴅ Eᴄᴏɴᴏᴍʏ

Uber and Lyft are racing toward IPOs next year. Currently, Uber is valued at $120 billion—more than GM, Ford and FCA combined—and Lyft is valued at $15 billion. (NY Times)
Uber sees itself as the next Amazon, but others see it as the next Yahoo. (Vanity Fair) Between a high pre-IPO valuation and a revolving executive door, it's tough to call.
Uber's secret weapon: more than a dozen Ph.D.s from top economics programs who act as an on-site think tank for Uber, gathering facts from quants and data scientists and synthesizing them to arm the lobbyists and policy folks who fight some of Uber’s biggest battles. (Quartz)
Uber is reportedly developing a new service that would provide short-term jobs in professions like security and hospitality. (Business Insider) I'll bet they know how to transport those employees to work, too.
The explosive growth of short-term rentals like Airbnb nationwide has pushed local governments to curb them, with help from the hotel industry, which wants to stifle a formidable competitor. In a last-minute effort to soften the bill, Airbnb sent council members a memo warning it may try to put the issue directly to voters with a ballot initiative in 2020 if the current version passes. (Washington Post)

Measurement / Analytics / Data

The future is not in plastics, but in data. Those who know how to measure and analyze it will rule the world.

When it comes to Facebook's latest video metrics screwup, most media buyers are like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. (Digiday) Which is why it'll happen again. What's past is prologue.
As surveyed, 85 percent of the marketing community believes that the most important measure of ROI is a mix of both short-term sales and long-term brand, but far fewer use such an approach. (Marketing Charts)
When it comes to Black Friday, surveyed retailers are saving 25 percent of their ad budgets for the event, but only 5 percent of the those surveyed said they'll target last-minute shoppers, a wasted opportunity. (Marketing Land)
Sixty-three percent of marketers said that data-driven personalization is a difficult tactic to execute. But it's not about hundreds of tag lines and variations of content; it's simply about making the experience relevant to the consumer. (eMarketer)

Mental Nourishment

Other links to help you reflect, improve, or simply learn something new.

If Humility Is So Important, Why Are Leaders So Arrogant? The best leaders adopt a sense of “humbition,” showing humility to others while channeling their ambition into the work itself, not toward outshining others. (Harvard Business Review)
According to a former Y Combinator partner, this is the number one sign a founder will succeed. (Inc.com) Hint: what are you doing this weekend?
There's a stealthy rise of silent meetings afoot. (Quartz) Stop children, what's that sound? Everybody look what's goin' round...
The next time you want someone to do something for you, remember the Braveheart Effect. (The Next Web)
Sprezzatura is studied nonchalance. It takes great effort to pull off, but it makes the untrained observer think that difficult things come naturally to the subject. (Medium)
Here are 10 of Shakespeare's best dirty jokes. (Mental Floss) "Alack, there lies more peril in thine eye Than twenty of their swords."
A replica of the Titanic will make its maiden voyage in 2022, 110 years after the original. (The Points Guy) There will be enough lifeboats this time around.
I was asked: "If a conference in your field had a last minute cancellation, what keynote speech could you give on short notice?" Here's my answer. (Quora) There are others as well.

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Top image credit: King Lear by Benjamin West, 1788 (public domain)

Monday, October 22, 2018